What Problem Are We Trying to Fix?

Working from Home (WFH)

Longmeadow is considering construction of a $25–30 million town-owned fiber network, financed over 20–30 years and ultimately backed by taxpayers. The proposed financial model suggests a 40–50% take rate (roughly 2,320–2,900 of 5,800 homes) is required to break even through subscriber revenue.

Before committing to long-term debt in a town already facing major capital obligations (new middle school, roads, infrastructure), it is reasonable to step back and ask:

What specific problem are we trying to fix?

Do Most Homes Need Symmetrical Gigabit Speeds?

There is a common perception that 1 Gig up / 1 Gig down — or even 5 Gig symmetrical — must be better.

But most households do not use bandwidth that way.

Typical 2026 Residential Usage Needs

[click chart to enlarge]

For most households:

• Download demand dominates. Every household does not need 1 Gig download speed.
• Upload demand matters primarily for multiple simultaneous HD video calls or heavy cloud uploads.

Most residents today report satisfactory performance with:

• 1 Gig / 100 Mbps cable service
• Streaming TV via Roku
• Video conferencing
• Gaming

References:

1. What is the Best Internet Speed for Netflix?
2.  FCC- Broadband Speed Guide
3.  Best Internet Speed for Gaming: Download, Upload & Ping Explained

1.     What are the Current Market Conditions?

Longmeadow is not a broadband desert.

Current competitive landscape:

 - Xfinity / Comcast

•  1 Gb down / 100 Mb up
•  Approximately $85/month
•  5-year rate guarantees (no contract)
•  Planned DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades nationally 

 - Verizon & T-Mobile 5G Home Internet

•  Wireless alternatives
•  Existing wireless technology already supports multi-WFH homes which could dramatically impact take-rate.

New DOCSIS 4.0 technology is designed to enable:

•  Multi-gigabit service
•  Symmetric or near-symmetric capabilities
•  2Gb/2Gb and potentially higher tiers over time

 The competitive environment could shift significantly over the next 5–10 years.

2.     Financial Framework: 5,800 Homes

Assume:

- 5,800 total serviceable homes
- Break-even requires 40–50% take rate
- 2,320 – 2,900 subscribers
- $90/month estimated municipal fiber cost

Annual Revenue at 45% Take Rate (2,610 homes):

2,610 × $90 × 12 = $2.82 million per year

If take rate drops to 35% (2,030 homes):

2,030 × $90 × 12 = $2.19 million per year

That’s a revenue difference of $630,000 annually.

In a 20–30 year debt structure, sustained shortfall can create significant financial pressure. Even if structured as an enterprise fund, bond markets and rating agencies view the municipality holistically.

3.     Capital Risk in Context

Longmeadow taxpayers are already facing:
- ~$100 million local share for new middle school
- Potential additional $200+ million of capital needs for road, water/sewer and storm sewer, school, DPW, etc. improvements as outline in the 5 year capital program (March 2025)
- Inflationary construction costs

Adding $25–30 million of subscriber-dependent infrastructure debt introduces:

• Market risk
• Competitive pricing risk
• Technology evolution risk
• Take-rate uncertainty
• Political risk if a taxpayer subsidy becomes necessary

4.     Is Symmetry the Problem to Solve?

Symmetrical speeds are technically superior.

But the policy question is: 
How many households are meaningfully constrained by 100 Mbps upload today?

If the number is small, then:

• The issue is one of preference, not access.
• The project becomes a competitive choice, not an infrastructure necessity.

That distinction matters when debt is taxpayer-backed.

5.     Technology Risk Over 20–30 Years

Fiber is long-lived infrastructure.

But:

• Cable is upgrading (--> DOCSIS 4.0).
• Wireless 5G continues improving.
• Pricing strategies may change dramatically.
• Promotional competition could suppress municipal take rate growth.

A project financed over 20–30 years assumes:

• Stable subscriber growth
• Competitive resilience
• Sufficient ARPU (Average Revenue Per Home)
• Technology relevance

In telecom markets, those assumptions carry risk.

6.     The Core Policy Question

The town must determine whether this is:
Critical Infrastructure Gap or Competitive Enhancement

If residents:

• Already receive gigabit download
• Have competitive pricing
• Have alternative providers
• Report minimal service dissatisfaction

Then the “problem” may not be capacity.

It may be:

• Price stability
• Local control
• Long-term competitive leverage

Those are policy goals — but they are different from fixing a service failure.

Conclusion

Fiber is excellent infrastructure, but infrastructure should solve a clearly defined problem.

In a town with:

• Existing gigabit service
• Competitive providers
• Major concurrent capital obligations
• 20–30 year borrowing horizon

It is reasonable to ask:

Are we solving a broadband deficiency — or entering a competitive telecom business at scale? 
Longmeadow has already heard from at least one major Internet service company that is interested in investing their own "risk capital" to bring Internet performance improvements to Longmeadow residents as well as serious competition to the existing players.  

Why is the Longmeadow Select Board continuing to block these efforts?  Let's not risk taxpayer money investing "risk capital" in this technology.
                                 _______________________________

I urge all town voters to learn about this Longmeadow Fiber project and the potential impact on the financial well being of our town and not just listen to all of the fiber "hype".

I will vote NO when this project is voted on at the upcoming Town Meeting in May.   

Jim Moran
48 Avondale Road